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CFW OUTLOOK
2026// SYNCED 11d ago· CHECKED 1s ago
NEUTRAL
// CONVICTION72%
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BTC hit $126K in October 2025 and has spent eight months bleeding. We're now sitting around $60K, roughly 52% off the highs, after Strategy broke its "never sell" doctrine and triggered a fresh leg down. Over $1B in leverage flushed in 24 hours. Most people are capitulating. That's usually when you want to be paying the most attention.

The macro setup has shifted, and not entirely in our favor. The dollar story inverted- DXY rolled back up off 99 and is pressing toward 101 on the back of Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination, which triggered a sharp de-leveraging across risk. The tailwind I was counting on earlier this year became a headwind. Worth being honest about that. What hasn't changed: global M2 keeps grinding higher past $113 trillion. Liquidity is still the oxygen for this trade, and the tap hasn't been shut, it just hasn't shown it's hand.

The institutional layer still matters, but it cuts both ways now. The same ETFs that anchored price on the way up have seen three straight weeks of outflows. No structural blowup, no exchange contagion- just steady, orderly distribution.

What I'm watching: miner capitulation is starting (cost-to-price ratio near 1.15, average miner underwater) historically a late-stage bear signal, not an early one. $49-59K is where generational buyers have stepped in before. $69-72K flipped from floor to ceiling. The quant models cluster a bottom in Q3 2026, and we're eight months into a bear that historically runs twelve to fourteen.

I'm not chasing. I'm not fully deployed into the falling knife either. Stables loaded, conviction positions intact, zero leverage on spot. The plan is to have maximum dry powder when everyone else is forced out.

Q3 is when it gets interesting. We're close.

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