MARKET

POSITIONING

MACRO MODEL

Macro-to-crypto positioning. How aggressively should you be in crypto given current conditions?

Updated 15d ago

MARKET REGIME

TRANSITION

COMPOSITE

NARRATIVE

CONVICTION

MEDIUM

ALIGNMENT

75.0%

Mixed signals, no clear regime. Reduce size, wait for clarity.

TIER 1 — LIQUIDITY (3x WEIGHT)

LIQUIDITY · T1

US Dollar Index

100.7

LIQUIDITY · T1

DXY 30-Day Trend

FLAT

LIQUIDITY · T1

Global M2 Supply Trend

FLAT

LIQUIDITY · T1

Fed Funds Rate

3.63%

LIQUIDITY · T1

Yield Curve (2Y-10Y)

0.38%

TIER 2 — SENTIMENT (2x WEIGHT)

SENTIMENT · T2

VIX Fear Index

17.1

SENTIMENT · T2

Credit Spreads Trend

FLAT

SENTIMENT · T2

10Y Treasury Yield

4.43%

TIER 3 — CONFIRMATION (1x WEIGHT)

CONFIRMATION · T3

Gold vs BTC Correlation

GOLD_OUTPERFORMING

-1

CONFIRMATION · T3

S&P 500 Trend

FLAT

NARRATIVE LAYER

+5 pts

SUGGESTED ALLOCATION

33%

15%

50%

BTC: 33%

ETH+: 15%

ALTS: 3%

STABLES: 50%

WATCHLIST — REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS

VIX Fear Index

VIX Fear Index at 17.1 — break below 13 would shift score -2 (bearish)

Yield Curve (2Y-10Y)

Yield Curve (2Y-10Y) at 0.4 — break below 0 would shift score -1 (bearish)

Fed Funds Rate

Fed Funds Rate at 3.6 — break below 4 would shift score +1 (bullish)

10Y Treasury Yield

10Y Treasury Yield at 4.4 — break below 4 would shift score +1 (bullish)

US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index at 100.7 — break below 98 would shift score +1 (bullish)

Gold vs BTC Correlation

Gold vs BTC Correlation currently scoring -1 — watch for stabilization

HISTORICAL COMPOSITE — LAST 50 SNAPSHOTS

4/14/2021506/18/2026

MODEL PERFORMANCE

62%directional accuracy

across 13 regime calls (8 correct) • 2017–2025

AVERAGE BTC RETURNS BY REGIME

Regime

Count

30D

60D

90D

EXPANSION

+10.0%

+27.4%

+41.4%

LATE CYCLE

-23.5%

-31.5%

-33.4%

DISLOCATION

+8.9%

+31.9%

+38.4%

CONTRACTION

-1.3%

-10.8%

-17.2%

TRANSITION

+32.0%

+38.8%

+61.0%

COMPOSITE SCORE VS 90-DAY BTC RETURN

Score: 0Score: 100

expansion

late cycle

transition

contraction

dislocation

// PREMIUM FEATURE

◉ TRANSITION regime · score 65/100

The full macro model — composite score, regime history, signal scores and allocation guidance.

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Macro Positioning Model · Deterministic multi-factor scoring

Data sources: DXY, VIX, Treasury Yields, Fed Funds, M2, Credit Spreads