how i'm running it
- hold spot through the leg. don't trade the core.
- buy red days, not green ones.
- take profit into strength. trim half at 2x, trail the rest.
- a broken stop means out. no averaging down.
- leverage is not how the thesis gets expressed.
The call for the 2027 leg
Bullish, at 75 of 100 conviction.
Called 1 Nov 2026 · holdings synced 14h ago
Macro reads transition, 58 { the instrument → }The fork
From $78,099 today, the base case is BTC $130-150K.
Hover a branch, or pick one below, to read its case.
Base case: BTC $130-150K. btc makes a new high in q2 to q3 2027, alts follow late and hard. that's where profit gets taken.
Thesis
i think the low is in. btc printed it in july after ten months of bleeding from the $126k top, and we're in the early part of the next leg. not the middle, not the end.
the tell was who moved first. privacy, a few ai names and hyperliquid started printing new highs while btc was still well off its own. that's what the start of a leg looks like. i expect btc to make a new high in this run, with alts following late and hard. the window i'm working with for the top is q2 to q3 2027. after that, most of these prices don't come back for a while.
the macro is hostile and i don't mind. the fed is tight, cpi keeps printing hot, a hike is on the table. that's why the move is slow and choppy, not a reason it doesn't happen. 2021 wasn't built on cuts either.
the dates i'm positioned around: stablecoin law is live, the market structure bill died, and the eu delists privacy coins in july 2027. dates, not vibes.
what i'm doing about it. holding the core and not trading it. i cut the tokens with no business behind them in september and october, and sold them green. keeping stables for the dips. the plan is to take profit into the 2027 top, not guess it.
could be wrong on the timing. not afraid to say it.
The book
HYPE is 64.9% of the book, across 17 positions in 6 sectors.
Grouped by sector, largest weight first. Open a position for its case, targets and what would end it.
L1/DEX64.9%
Major12.4%
Other10.3%
DeFi5.8%
AI3.8%
NFT2.7%
The plan
deleverage. hold spot. buy red days with money you don't need.