The record — every call, and what BTC did after it
2 of 2 calls right so far. BTC +8.6% after a call, on average.
Each call is measured by BTC from the day it was published to the day the next one was, or to today. A bullish call is right when BTC rose, a bearish one when it fell. Neutral calls are kept, not scored.
← → step from call to call
A past call for 2026
Bullish, at 50 of 100 conviction.
Called 2 Apr 2026 · revised 18 Apr 2026
Thesis
BTC isn’t trading alone anymore. It’s moving with equities, tech, and overall liquidity.
The 4-year cycle still exists, but liquidity is what really drives it now. When liquidity expands, BTC moves faster.
Commodities still look strong. Inflation hasn’t gone anywhere and geopolitics are messy.
Institutions are properly involved now through ETFs and treasury plays. That ties BTC closer to global markets.
So macro matters a lot more now. Rates, liquidity, dollar strength, all of it.
Volatility and fear will create the best opportunities.
My bias is simple: if liquidity keeps expanding into 2026, risk assets go higher. That includes BTC and crypto.
The book
6 positions.
Open a position for its case and what would end it.
The plan
This setup is still macro-led. Liquidity direction will decide whether these narratives actually play out or not. If liquidity expands, risk assets should continue trending higher. If it stalls or tightens, most of these moves fade quickly. Across the board, the key is confirmation. Strength needs to sustain, not just spike. For investments, it comes down to whether usage and flows actually show up. For trades, it’s about respecting levels and not overstaying bias. Right now, conditions allow for upside, but it’s not a free environment. Execution matters more than conviction.